Land Valuation & Pricing Strategy
39.478 Acres | Lake Travis ISD | Travis County (unincorporated)
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
Prepared September 30, 2026
The Position
Most land in this corridor is priced as acreage. This tract should be priced as what it can become.
It sits at Provence's second entrance, directly across Hamilton Pool Road from Rocky Creek. Belvedere is adjacent, and Provence bounds it on two sides. The closest large-acreage sales in the corridor trade between $60,000 and $95,000 per acre. They are rural, interior and slow. A tract that shares an entrance road with an active production community competes for a different buyer: the builders and land developers already working here.
Property Snapshot
What Sets This Tract Apart
A Second Point of Access at Provence's Entrance
If survey and title confirm direct access to Martinet Drive, the tract has two points of entry. One of them is an established community entrance, which is the most valuable single feature a developer can buy here.
Scale Adjacent to Proven Demand
Provence recorded 65 closings in the past 12 months, mostly 2025 new construction at a median of $850,000.
Frontage with a Demonstrated Commercial Appetite
16316 Hamilton Pool Road, 14 acres at Provence's main light, closed at $317,857 per acre in November 2025.
No City Layer
The 2016 listing records the land as unzoned Travis County, outside any ETJ. Entitlement risk for a buyer is limited to county, utility and environmental review.
Highest and Best Use
We tested four uses against the four standard criteria.
Micro-Market Context
Adjacent Communities — Closed in the Last 12 Months (MLS)
Estate Lot Context
Estate lots within 2 miles, closed in the last 24 months: 0.9–1.05 acres at $300,000–$525,000, and 2–3 acres at $560,000–$825,000.
The active estate-lot inventory in Madrone Ranch is running 570+ days on market at $375,000–$495,000. That tells us the estate-lot path carries absorption risk and should not be the basis for pricing.
Closed Land Comparables
5-Mile Radius, 36 Months
The Floor
Interior rural tracts of 20–40 acres closed at a median of $95,284 per acre. That is the floor for this tract as acreage.
The Ceiling Comp
16316 Hamilton Pool Road is the closest comparable by location and survey. It shares the Wildy Survey 528 and sits at Provence's main light. It is also 14 acres priced for frontage use, sold to a buyer outside the MLS, after 560 days and a 15% discount from launch. It sets a ceiling for frontage acreage. It does not set a rate for 39 acres.
Historical Confirmation
The 2016 sale of this tract's own 2.5-acre frontage ($215,000; $86,000 per acre) confirms the demand for frontage. At ten years old, it is not a current value indicator.
Active and Expired Competition
Active Listings — 20–40 Acres (Land)
Range: $88,003–$159,019 per acre; median $107,849
The Pricing Trap to Avoid
Nearest active: 17650 Hamilton Pool Road, 16.4 acres between Belvedere and Madrone Ranch, was reduced to $2,200,000 ($134,146 per acre) on September 25, 2026 after 529 days. It previously expired at $3.5M and $2.7M. It is marketed to estate buyers as three lots. That is the pricing trap we intend to avoid.
Expired on Hamilton Pool Road: 17522 HPR (16.4 ac) at $3.5M–$3.95M; 20300 HPR (33–34 ac) at $3.5M–$4.0M.
Where our price sits. Against rural actives, $4,950,000 ($125,386 per acre) sits above the median, at the fifth of seven. That position is deliberate. It holds only if the listing reaches developer buyers, so the due-diligence package comes before launch. If the market responds only as estate buyers, the Velocity tier is where this tract clears.
The Launch-Price Pattern
Across 19 closed land and acreage sales within five miles over 36 months, launch price determined the outcome.
Tracts That Launched at or Above $4.5 Million
Value Reconciliation
Indicated Value
$4.5M–$4.9M
As the tract stands today. Confirmed wastewater service and a concept plan supporting 100+ lots would support pricing toward $5.5M.
The residual models use our assumptions for lot yield, finished-lot value, development cost and developer margin. We will replace them with a civil engineer's concept plan before launch.
Three Pricing Scenarios
Read the modeled close before the list price.
Test
List Price: $5,750,000
Per Acre: $145,651
Modeled Close: $4.6M–$5.0M
Expected DOM: 250–560
Cohort: Launched-high cohort (80–87% of launch)
Condition: Only with a wastewater service letter and a concept plan in hand
✦ Recommended
List Price: $4,950,000
Per Acre: $125,386
Modeled Close: $4.5M–$4.8M
Expected DOM: 90–180
Cohort: Priced-right cohort (91–97%)
Condition: Due-diligence package complete
Velocity
List Price: $4,450,000
Per Acre: $112,721
Modeled Close: $4.25M–$4.45M
Expected DOM: 30–90
Cohort: Priced-right cohort (95–100%)
Condition: Available immediately
If the Test tier is chosen, it comes with a written commitment to move to $4,950,000 at day 60 without a signed letter of intent.
Our Recommendation
List at $4,950,000, launched with the due-diligence package complete. Run a structured offer process: 30–45 days of targeted exposure to builders and developers active in the corridor, then a call for best offers by a set date.
The disciplined path to a higher number runs through confirmed wastewater service, not through a higher launch. If the utility letter supports density, we move to the Test tier before launch, not after.
Pre-Listing Due-Diligence Package
Boundary and Topographic Survey
Confirming acreage, HPR frontage, and whether the tract touches Martinet Drive directly.
Utility Service Letters
WTCPUA water, and wastewater availability and capacity.
Civil Engineer Concept Plan
Showing lot yield under septic and sewer scenarios.
Title Commitment Review
Including the restrictions the seller placed on the 2016 frontage sale, easements, and any reciprocal access agreements.
Environmental Screen
Including endangered-species habitat under the Balcones Canyonlands framework and a Phase I if the buyer pool expects one.
Rollback Tax Estimate
From the appraisal district or title company.
Drone and Aerial Photography
With the frontage cleaned and mowed beforehand.
We will obtain bids for each item and present the costs before engaging.
FPG Marketing & Concierge Plan
Direct Developer Outreach
Direct, discreet outreach to the builders active in Provence (David Weekley, Newmark, Ashton Woods, per the MLS) and to regional land developers and commercial brokers.
Digital Offering Memorandum
Survey, utility letters, concept plan, aerials, title summary and comps — a complete package for every qualified buyer.
MLS Exposure
Land and Commercial categories at launch, timed after the outreach window opens.
Single Point of Contact & Data Room
A single point of contact and a data room, so every buyer works from the same facts.
The First 30 Days
The Buyer's Numbers
Rollback Taxes
The tract carries a wildlife-management valuation. A buyer who changes the use triggers rollback taxes, currently a three-year lookback in Texas. At full market value and today's combined rate (1.624%), that is roughly $150,000. Title and the appraisal district will confirm the figure. Under standard contract terms, rollback triggered by the buyer's post-closing change of use is the buyer's cost, and developers will price it in.
Carrying Cost at Full Value
Approximately $60,000 per year in property taxes while a developer entitles and builds.
Next Steps
Approve the Due-Diligence Package and Budget
Confirm the Wastewater Path
This decides between the Recommended and Test tiers.
Review the Net Sheet
At the confirmed list price, delivered separately.
Coordinate with the Seller's CPA
On the tax treatment of a sale of long-held land.
Sign the Listing Agreement
Set the launch and call-for-offers dates.
Sources: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) searches run September 30, 2026, covering Land and Farm/Ranch within 5 miles of the subject, 8–150 acres, closed and expired within 36 months plus current actives, and closed residential sales in Provence, Rocky Creek and Belvedere over the last 12 months; Travis County tax record for parcel 109956; MLS #9344347 (2016).
17120 Hamilton Pool Road